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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to IND 17, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-10-S.Miller at IND 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model