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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TB 16, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.65 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP