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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 8-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to IND 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines to IND 33 for 9 yards (52-K.Britt, 48-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.53 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 35, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model