Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 65

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(5:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to TB 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-J.Darden to TB 17 for -1 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.49 EP
59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model