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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 6 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.28 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model