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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
37.5%
NE
62.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than TEN

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
NE 25
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TEN

A.J. Brown WR Out Chest
Nate Davis G Out Concussion
Rashaan Evans LB Out Ankle
David Long LB Out Hamstring
Jeremy McNichols RB Out Concussion
Teair Tart DT Out Ankle
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Concussion
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi LB Questionable Hamstring
Jayon Brown LB Questionable Quadricep
Greg Mabin CB Questionable Ankle
Elijah Molden CB Questionable Groin

NE

Cody Davis S Questionable Illness
Jake Bailey P Questionable right Knee
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Knee
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Damien Harris RB Questionable Neck
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Neck
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Ankle
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Shoulder
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 13
–
NE 36

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:42 TD NE (7:42) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 14:29 TD TEN (14:29) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to NE 1 for no gain (54-D.Hightower). Tennessee challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – NE 7
  • Q2 09:53 FG NE (9:53) 6-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. TEN 6 – NE 10
  • Q2 03:08 FG NE (3:08) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. TEN 6 – NE 13
  • Q2 01:02 FG NE (1:02) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. TEN 6 – NE 16
  • Q2 00:48 TD TEN (:48) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – NE 16
  • Q3 11:16 FG NE (11:16) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. TEN 13 – NE 19
  • Q3 05:12 TD NE (5:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – NE 25
  • Q4 06:14 FG NE (6:14) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 5th 50-yd FG of season, ties franchise record (Gostkowski 2013). TEN 13 – NE 29
  • Q4 04:45 TD NE (4:45) 37-D.Harris right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – NE 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:34) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to NE 48, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-G.Olszewski to TEN 37 for 15 yards (46-M.Cox, 53-D.Cole).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 38%

    (3:44) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to NE 44 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (9:53) 6-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (6:05) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (3:08) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (1:02) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%

    (11:16) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 19 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (7:57) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:55) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to NE 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 44 for 8 yards (21-M.Farley).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (12:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 16-C.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NE -9. Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 14 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 69%

    (6:14) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 5th 50-yd FG of season, ties franchise record (Gostkowski 2013).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (54-D.Hightower).