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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 19

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP