Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 95

Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 0

(12:34) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to NE 48, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-G.Olszewski to TEN 37 for 15 yards (46-M.Cox, 53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -4.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.38 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 95, worth -5.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model