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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 26

New England Patriots 13 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model