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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 2

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 16-C.Hollister INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson (32-D.McCourty) at NE -9. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth +0.61 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model