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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 34

New England Patriots 26 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 5th 50-yd FG of season, ties franchise record (Gostkowski 2013).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.34 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model