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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 20

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.65 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model