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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
61.8%
CHI
38.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Taysom Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.257 EPA/dropback in prior starts (ARI starting Taysom Kyler Murray in place of Colt McCoy)
  • CHI defense: +0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • ARI on 4 more days rest than CHI

Predicted Final Score

ARI 25
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: ARI by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ARI

James Wiggins S Out Knee
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Hamstring
Justin Pugh G Questionable Calf
Byron Murphy CB Questionable Foot
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Ankle

CHI

Mario Edwards DT Out Ribs
Marquise Goodwin WR Out Foot
Akiem Hicks DT Out Ankle
Damien Williams RB Out Calf
Allen Robinson WR Doubtful Hamstring
Justin Fields QB Doubtful Ribs
Roquan Smith LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 33
–
CHI 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 TD ARI (11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 01:47 TD ARI (1:47) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CHI 0
  • Q2 08:53 TD CHI (8:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – CHI 6
  • Q2 05:47 TD ARI (5:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 6-J.Conner for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – CHI 7
  • Q3 09:56 FG ARI (9:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 24 – CHI 7
  • Q3 02:53 TD CHI (2:53) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 80-J.Graham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – CHI 13
  • Q4 08:35 FG ARI (8:35) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 27 – CHI 14
  • Q4 06:28 TD ARI (6:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 33 – CHI 14
  • Q4 02:51 TD CHI (2:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 17-J.Grant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-I.Simmons]. ARI 33 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 91%

    (11:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (11:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 17-J.Grant to ARI 16 for 11 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to ARI 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-R.Moore to ARI 47 for 18 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). PENALTY on ARI-23-R.Alford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 29.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:04) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to CHI 35, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 43 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to ARI 16, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (9:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to ARI 15 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks, 97-J.Phillips).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:56) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to CHI 2, Center-43-B.Brinkley, downed by ARI-45-D.Gardeck.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (8:35) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 46 for 24 yards (58-J.Hicks; 34-J.Thompson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 17-J.Grant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-I.Simmons].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 12 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.54 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (:25) (Shotgun) 79-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-E.Benjamin left guard to CHI 35 for no gain (95-K.Tonga; 98-B.Nichols).