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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 35

Arizona Cardinals 33 – Chicago Bears 22

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 79-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 26-E.Benjamin left guard to CHI 35 for no gain (95-K.Tonga; 98-B.Nichols).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +1.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.54 EP