4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 27 for 12 yards (28-M.Killebrew; 44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP