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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL
50.1%
PIT
49.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: -0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: BAL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

BAL

Cedric Ogbuehi T Out Thigh
Miles Boykin WR Doubtful Finger
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Knee
Jaylon Ferguson LB Questionable Illness
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Illness
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Neck
Tavon Young CB Questionable Illness
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Ankle
Patrick Queen LB Questionable Ribs
Patrick Ricard FB Questionable Foot
Anthony Averett CB Questionable Shoulder
Odafe Oweh LB Questionable Shoulder
Chris Westry CB Questionable Thigh

PIT

Isaiah Buggs DE Out Ankle
Joe Haden CB Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 19
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:40 TD BAL (8:40) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 00:32 FG PIT (:32) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. BAL 7 – PIT 3
  • Q3 07:29 FG BAL (7:29) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – PIT 3
  • Q4 14:08 TD PIT (14:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 18-D.Johnson for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – PIT 9
  • Q4 11:54 FG BAL (11:54) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – PIT 9
  • Q4 07:23 FG PIT (7:23) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. BAL 13 – PIT 12
  • Q4 01:52 TD PIT (1:52) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – PIT 18
  • Q4 00:16 TD BAL (:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – PIT 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:31) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 27 for 14 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:13) 6-P.Harvin punts 64 yards to BAL 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:27) 6-P.Harvin punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 27 for 12 yards (28-M.Killebrew; 44-D.Watt).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 12 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%

    (2:00) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 13 for 5 yards (46-N.Moore, 16-T.Wallace).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (:32) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 20 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to BAL 42, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 42 for no gain (45-B.Johnson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (7:29) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%

    (3:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 25 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:52) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 6 yards (26-G.Stone).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (11:54) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (7:23) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:31) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 31 for 8 yards (57-K.Welch).