4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 13 for 5 yards (46-N.Moore, 16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model