4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:32) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.67 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model