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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 89

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to BAL 42, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 42 for no gain (45-B.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 89, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model