4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 49

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 25 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model