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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 6 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model