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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model