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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 80

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 31 for 8 yards (57-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model