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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP