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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 2-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP