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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Thursday 2021-12-02 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

DAL
61.3%
NO
38.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Taysom Hill (NO) -0.169 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.178 EPA/dropback (NO starting Taysom Hill in place of Trevor Siemian)
  • DAL offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
NO 21
Projected margin: DAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DAL

Cedrick Wilson WR Out Ankle
Malik Turner WR Questionable Illness
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Reserve/COVID activation

NO

Marcus Davenport DE Out Shoulder
Kaden Elliss LB Out Hamstring
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Out Ankle
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Ryan Ramczyk T Questionable Knee
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 27
–
NO 17

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:05 TD DAL (1:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 13-M.Gallup for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0 DAL 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 13:02 TD NO (13:02) 7-T.Hill pass short left to 84-L.Humphrey for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 9 DAL 7 – NO 6
  • Q2 09:10 FG DAL (9:10) 2-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – NO 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG DAL (:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – NO 7
  • Q3 08:31 FG NO (8:31) 19-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. DAL 13 – NO 10
  • Q3 04:06 TD DAL (4:06) 20-T.Pollard left end for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – NO 10
  • Q4 03:00 TD DAL (3:00) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle intended for 11-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 91-C.Watkins at NO 29. 91-C.Watkins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO, Illegal Shift, declined. DAL 26 – NO 10
  • Q4 02:47 TD NO (2:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 11-D.Harris for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 65 DAL 27 – NO 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to DAL 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 23 for 7 yards (50-A.Dowell; 88-T.Montgomery).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:45) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to NO 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for 8 yards (92-D.Armstrong).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 64%

    (7:56) 19-B.Maher 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (5:16) (No Huddle) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to DAL 4, Center-49-Z.Wood. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 20 for 16 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

    (9:10) 2-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:44) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 7-T.Diggs to DAL 30 for 9 yards (24-D.Washington).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:14) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris pushed ob at NO 34 for 19 yards (32-C.Clement).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:36) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (8:31) 19-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (7:02) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris to NO 21 for 8 yards (53-F.Bernard; 24-K.Joseph).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to DAL 29, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%

    (14:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to DAL 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-84-L.Humphrey.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 49%

    (10:30) 5-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to DAL 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 32 for 12 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 49%

    (7:12) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 11-D.Harris to DAL 32 for 12 yards (30-A.Brown). Pass 8, YAC 4

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:27) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NO 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris ran ob at NO 34 for 2 yards. PENALTY on NO-38-J.Heath, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 34%

    (3:52) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.