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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris pushed ob at NO 34 for 19 yards (32-C.Clement).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model