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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to DAL 16, Center-49-Z.Wood. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 23 for 7 yards (50-A.Dowell; 88-T.Montgomery).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.36 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model