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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 7 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 19-B.Maher 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model