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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris to NO 21 for 8 yards (53-F.Bernard; 24-K.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP