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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to DAL 29, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model