Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(10:45) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to NO 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for 8 yards (92-D.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -5.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model