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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to DAL 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 32 for 12 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.06 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model