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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 10 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short middle to 11-D.Harris to DAL 32 for 12 yards (30-A.Brown). Pass 8, YAC 4

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.38 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model