4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 19-B.Maher 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model