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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 93

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to IND 46, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 45 for -1 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.31 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 93, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 51, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model