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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -10.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

IND
77.8%
HOU
22.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.292 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.176 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Tyrod Taylor (HOU): -0.032 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 28
–
HOU 18
Projected margin: IND by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

DeForest Buckner DT Questionable Knee
Jack Doyle TE Questionable Knee
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Calf

HOU

Danny Amendola WR Out Knee
Terrence Brooks S Out Hamstring
Justin McCray C Out Concussion
DeMarcus Walker DE Out Hamstring
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
David Johnson RB Questionable Illness
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Illness
Chris Conley WR Questionable Illness
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Illness
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Foot
Cole Toner C Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 31
–
HOU 0

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:29 TD IND (11:29) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 28-J.Taylor. 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:48 TD IND (:48) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 16-A.Dulin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 0
  • Q3 09:51 TD IND (9:51) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – HOU 0
  • Q4 09:11 FG IND (9:11) 6-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 24 – HOU 0
  • Q4 02:00 TD IND (2:00) 35-De.Jackson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 30 – HOU 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 94%

    (4:28) 6-M.Badgley 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 28 for 7 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill; 57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 56%

    (14:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to HOU 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to IND 46, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 45 for -1 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%

    (11:35) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 78%

    (3:16) 2-C.Wentz up the middle to HOU 29 for 2 yards (25-D.King).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:05) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to IND 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 19 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-D.King to HOU 18 for 4 yards (16-A.Dulin; 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 59%

    (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 12-N.Collins.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (9:11) 6-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (8:55) 11-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to IND 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 49 for 15 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks pushed ob at HOU 40 for 14 yards (37-K.Willis). Houston challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 51%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 49 for -8 yards (57-K.Turay).