Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 60

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 21

(8:05) 11-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to IND 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 19 for no gain (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model