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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 6-M.Badgley 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP