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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 43

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 31

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills sacked at HOU 49 for -8 yards (57-K.Turay).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP