4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to JAX 33 for 2 yards (90-M.Brown; 54-D.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.81 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model