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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
@
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

JAX
31.8%
LA
68.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.200 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.084 EPA/dropback
  • JAX offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 21
–
LA 28
Projected margin: LA by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

JAX

Shaquill Griffin CB Out Concussion
James Robinson RB Questionable Heel

LA

Buddy Howell RB Out Thigh
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Foot
David Long CB Questionable Illness
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Hip
Darrell Henderson RB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 7
–
LA 37

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:24 FG LA (12:24) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. JAX 0 – LA 3
  • Q1 10:31 TD LA (10:31) 25-S.Michel up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – LA 9
  • Q2 13:28 TD JAX (13:28) 90-M.Brown and 76-W.Richardson reported in as eligible. 24-C.Hyde right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – LA 10
  • Q2 07:46 FG LA (7:46) 8-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. JAX 7 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:23 FG LA (:23) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. JAX 7 – LA 16
  • Q3 11:49 TD LA (11:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 10-C.Kupp for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – LA 22
  • Q3 03:33 TD LA (3:33) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – LA 29
  • Q4 10:56 TD LA (10:56) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 3-O.Beckham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-21-N.Lawson was injured during the play. JAX 7 – LA 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (12:24) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 68 yards to LA 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to JAX 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 68%

    (1:34) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 11-M.Jones to LA 30 for 6 yards (4-J.Fuller).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 70%

    (9:58) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to JAX 33 for 2 yards (90-M.Brown; 54-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 86%

    (7:46) 8-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:20) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to JAX 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens. PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 34.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 54%

    (2:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 31 yards to LA 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%

    (:23) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to LA 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%

    (8:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 36%

    (4:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to LA 9, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to JAX 1, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-17-J.Koski.