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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 8-M.Gay 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.54 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP