Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to JAX 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens. PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.58 EP
62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model