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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 8-M.Gay 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model