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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:23) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.35 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model