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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to JAX 1, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-17-J.Koski.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP