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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-54-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP