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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LAC
38.8%
CIN
61.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.119 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.129 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21
–
CIN 26
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LAC

Alohi Gilman S Out Quadricep
Asante Samuel CB Out Concussion

CIN

Chris Evans RB Doubtful Ankle
Khalid Kareem DE Doubtful Illness
Auden Tate WR Doubtful Calf
Mike Thomas WR Doubtful Illness
Trey Hopkins C Questionable Ankle
Riley Reiff T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 41
–
CIN 22

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:36 TD LAC (11:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 06:33 FG LAC (6:33) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 9 – CIN 0
  • Q1 01:36 TD LAC (1:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 15 – CIN 0
  • Q2 10:20 TD LAC (10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-J.Guyton for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-30-J.Bates III, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. LAC 22 – CIN 0
  • Q2 07:44 TD CIN (7:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 85-T.Higgins for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 24 – CIN 6
  • Q2 02:45 TD CIN (2:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 24 – CIN 12
  • Q3 09:57 FG CIN (9:57) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. LAC 24 – CIN 16
  • Q3 07:14 TD CIN (7:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 24 – CIN 22
  • Q4 13:53 TD LAC (13:53) 28-J.Mixon right guard to LAC 37 for -3 yards (95-C.Covington). FUMBLES (95-C.Covington), RECOVERED by LAC-20-T.Campbell at LAC 39. 20-T.Campbell for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 30 – CIN 22
  • Q4 10:53 TD LAC (10:53) 61-S.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 37 – CIN 22
  • Q4 01:15 FG LAC (1:15) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 41 – CIN 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (11:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (6:33) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:55) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 7-A.Roberts pushed ob at LAC 43 for 15 yards (33-T.Flowers). CIN-55-L.Wilson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 43.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 53%

    (13:46) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-54-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:48) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to LAC 39, Center-46-C.Harris. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 42 for 3 yards (17-S.Morgan; 31-Mi.Thomas).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (9:57) 2-E.McPherson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:48) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to LAC 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:45) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to CIN 43, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:58) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to LAC 47, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (6:56) 1-T.Long punts 36 yards to CIN 21, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Higgins [94-C.Rumph].

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (1:15) 6-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.