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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to LAC 39, Center-46-C.Harris. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 42 for 3 yards (17-S.Morgan; 31-Mi.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model